As 2024 comes to a close, the private capital fund industry stands as a cornerstone of the global economy, having grown exponentially over the past decade. Today, private markets account for a significant portion of global financial activity, and in 2025, their AUM is projected to reach up to $15 trillion[1].
This growth trajectory underscores the critical role private markets play in financing businesses, driving innovation, and generating returns for investors across the globe. The sector’s ability to raise and deploy capital efficiently, even amidst volatile market conditions, demonstrates its resilience. In 2024, despite macroeconomic challenges and geopolitical uncertainties, private capital provided essential liquidity and investment across a spectrum of opportunities, including secondary markets, private credit, and venture-backed start-ups.
However, regulatory reforms, ESG priorities, liquidity pressures, and geopolitical developments have redefined the operating environment. As we reflect on 2024, we see a year of transformation that has set the stage for private markets to adapt, innovate, and remain a vital force in the global economy heading into 2025.
A year of political turbulence
Leadership transitions
The political environment in 2024 was defined by seismic changes. In the UK, the Labour government’s ascent marked a shift toward fiscal tightening and tax reforms aimed at addressing public sector deficits. Across the Atlantic, Donald Trump’s re-election as U.S. President introduced uncertainties around trade and foreign policy. These leadership transitions underscore the interplay between politics and private markets, as fund managers and investors brace for policy decisions with global implications.
Goldman Sachs predicts that the U.S. administration’s proposed tariffs will weigh heavily on Eurozone growth, particularly as trade policy uncertainty disrupts cross-border flows[2]. Combined with the Labour government’s reformist agenda in the UK, private markets must remain vigilant and flexible as they navigate a time of change.
Carried interest: A new taxation era in the UK
Under the Labour government, the carried interest regime will transition from being taxed as capital gains to trading income, a move designed to align taxation norms with global benchmarks. The capital gains tax hike to 32% adds another layer of complexity, particularly for non-UK residents providing services to UK-based funds. The regime change will place the UK with one of the highest tax rates in respect of carried interest across the global and will require careful consideration by private capital managers.
Liquidity and fundraising: evolving strategies in challenging conditions
Challenges in fundraising
The fundraising environment remained difficult throughout 2024. The number of new funds dropped by 24% to 189 form the second quarter to the third quarter – but deals and exits are starting to show some stability[3] as we point toward 2025. Demand for credit funds, particularly those offering evergreen structures with predictable cash yield, have continued to grow, driven by investors seeking safe havens amid volatile equity markets.
Secondary markets and liquidity tools
Secondary markets gained unprecedented traction, supported by an expanding suite of liquidity platforms. The market now boasts over 25 platforms, enabling fund managers to provide enhanced liquidity options to investors. These tools are particularly valuable in navigating constrained capital conditions, offering fund managers greater flexibility while aligning with investors’ liquidity needs.
In the first half of 2024, GP-led transactions accounted for $31 billion, making up 43% of the total secondary market volume[4]. This reflects a 94% increase compared to the same period in 2023, driven by strong demand for continuation funds and the adoption of GP-led structures by sponsors seeking liquidity for LPs and extended holding periods for valuable assets.
Unlocking pension fund capital
Pension fund reforms remain a hot topic, particularly in the UK. Defined contribution (DC) schemes face structural barriers in allocating to private capital due to liquidity constraints and valuation complexities. However, innovative managers aligning their strategies with these requirements stand to unlock significant capital flows and solving these issues may be critical to maintaining the UK’s competitiveness in private markets.
Geopolitical spotlight: regional dynamics in private capital
All of the key European fund domiciles offers excellent coverage across all investment strategies however we have highlighted some of the key themes specific to each jurisdiction that we have observed this year.
Jersey: a gateway for global investment
Jersey’s reputation as a strategic hub for cross-border fund structuring continues to grow. The island has positioned itself as a key conduit for Asian investment into Europe, supported by strong regulatory frameworks and a global connectivity strategy. Jersey continues to apply a focus towards U.S. managers for launching funds aimed at European markets, underscoring its importance as a gateway jurisdiction.
In addition, investor demand for tokenisation is increasing as investors seek more control and transparency over their assets. Tokenisation allows for the fractionalisation of assets, enabling investors to access opportunities traditionally reserved for larger institutional players. In 2021, the sector stood at around US$1.9bn, growing to US$2.8bn in 2023 and US$3.45in 2024 so far. Aggregated, assets currently stand at around US$13bn with the expectation that the sector will rise into the trillions (USD) by 2030[5].
Guernsey: innovation for venture and buyouts strategies
Guernsey remains the premier jurisdiction for European venture capital (VC) funds, with twice as many funds raised in Guernsey during 2022-2023 as compared to the next most-popular jurisdiction[6]. Leveraging its broad diversity of experience and skills, whilst offering familiarity to managers and investors, Guernsey is an ideal jurisdiction for new managers looking to launch a first-time, spin-out or buyout venture fund. Its appeal lies in a responsive regulatory environment, a deep talent pool, and an ecosystem that fosters innovation. Similarly to Jersey, Guernsey recognises the role that tokenisation could play in improving efficiency with capital markets[7].
Luxembourg: growth through private debt
Luxembourg solidified its role as a hub for private debt funds in 2024, with credit sublines playing a pivotal role in optimising IRRs and portfolio management flexibility. As borrowing costs rise, fund managers are leveraging these facilities to balance NAV growth with capital efficiency. Looking ahead, private debt strategies remain critical, offering resilience in a high-rate environment.
ESG: A rebounding priority
Despite a cooling in ESG fundraising during 2023, 2024 has seen a resurgence globally, with $55 billion raised by April alone[8], signalling renewed investor interest. ESG strategies are increasingly viewed as a means of balancing returns with risk mitigation, given their lower performance variance compared to non-ESG funds.
With ESG AUM projected to reach $33.9 trillion globally by 2026[9], fund managers must continue integrating sustainable practices to attract investor capital and align with regulatory expectations.
Operational excellence: scaling for success
Fund managers face increasing pressure to scale their operations without sacrificing efficiency. Collaboration with third-party fund administrators has become essential, allowing managers to streamline compliance, reporting, and deal execution processes. This approach enables fund managers to focus on value creation while mitigating operational bottlenecks—a critical consideration for scaling venture and private equity funds.
This year, we released a whitepaper which addressed how outsourced models are changing. Whilst managers face increasing pressures to enhance performance, reduce costs and manage risks effectively, we share how partnering with expert providers, like us, you can simplify administration solutions for your business. Read the whitepaper here.
A bearish outlook for 2025
While modest growth is expected for the private capital industry in 2025, the path ahead isn’t expected to be without challenge despite interest rate cuts, particularly in the U.K. and U.S., could provide much-needed relief to fund managers and investors. According to Goldman Sachs[10], the U.S. economy is expected to see a 2.5% growth in GDP, beating expectations. However, this positive growth is likely to be offset by geopolitical tensions, such as the ongoing effects of trade policy uncertainty linked to U.S.
Changes in tax regimes are likely to influence investor behaviour and could impact deal flow and fund strategies. This combined with global economic uncertainties, will require private capital fund managers to adjust quickly and embrace a more agile operational model.
For fund managers, adaptability will be key. Embracing technology, integrating ESG considerations, and refining operational models will position firms for success in an environment that demands innovation and resilience. As private capital markets evolve, opportunities will emerge for those who can navigate the complexities of 2025 with flexibility and foresight.
As a leading fund administrator, Belasko remains committed to supporting our clients in navigating any change or uncertainty that 2025 may bring, as well as offer tailored solutions to help fund managers thrive and avail of new opportunities on the horizon. To discuss in more detail, please reach out to Nick McHardy, our head of funds, at: [email protected].
[1] https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/market-insights/private-markets
[2] https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/goldman-sachs-research/macro-outlook-2025–tailwinds–probably–trump-tariffs
[3] https://www.preqin.com/insights/research/quarterly-updates/q3-2024-private-equity#:~:text=Q3%20proves%20we%20are%20in,and%20exits%20are%20showing%20stability.&text=Download%20PDF-,Q3%20proves%20we%20are%20in%20a%20more%20challenging%20fundraising%20environment,and%20exits%20are%20showing%20stability.
[4] https://www.blackrock.com/institutions/en-us/insights/market-update-h2-2024
[5] https://www.jerseyfinance.je/news/investor-demand-for-control-will-drive-tokenisation-agenda-but-education-and-collaboration-are-key/
[6] https://www.guernseyfinance.com/industry-resources/news/2024/venture-capital-trends-guernsey-takes-the-lead/
[7] https://www.guernseyfinance.com/industry-resources/news/2024/gfsc-policy-statement-approach-to-fund-tokenisation/
[8] https://www.preqin.com/esg/esg-in-alternatives
[9] https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/news-room/press-releases/2022/awm-revolution-2022-report.html
[10] https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/goldman-sachs-research/2025-us-economic-outlook-new-policies-similar-path