Jersey’s finance industry finds itself at the intersection of global economic shifts, geopolitical uncertainty, and a stabilising interest rate environment.
With growth in private capital assets set to reach even greater heights, Preqin predicts growth of $30 trillion in global alternative assets under management (AUM) by 2030 (up from $16.8 trillion expected by 2025)[1]. Following a challenging period, venture capital managers anticipate a rebound in 2025, although private debt remains the darling asset class. Despite a more cautious recent investor sentiment awaiting a more stable and predictable interest rate environment private debt is projected to reach $2.9 trillion by 2029.
Recent discussions at key industry events highlighted the evolving landscape and the opportunities for growth on the horizon for Jersey’s financial services sector.
Navigating Trump 2.0: A changing global investment landscape
Geoff Cook recently shared his views on how the return of Donald Trump to the White House is set to reshape global investment dynamics[2]. Trump administration’s ‘America First’ policies, renewed focus on trade protectionism, and shifts in tax regulations will impact financial centres worldwide. For small-state international finance centres (IFCs) like Jersey, this presents both challenges and opportunities.
- Global risk and investment flows: A second Trump presidency will reshape global investment dynamics. His policies on trade, diplomacy, and foreign relations could create volatility but also opportunities for IFCs as investors seek stable jurisdictions amid geopolitical uncertainty.
- Tariffs and supply chain adjustments: We are already seeing Trump take a firm stance on tariffs, driving protectionist measures and reshaping global trade. This could disrupt supply chains, raise inflation, and impact industries like EVs, tech, and agriculture. IFCs could play a pivotal role in facilitating capital flows, supporting companies relocating production and diversifying supply chains to mitigate tariff risks.
- Tax and corporate structures: Trump’s return to office will almost certainly challenge the OECD’s Pillar two initiative on Base Erosion and Profit Shifting. Although the OECD’s push for a 15% global minimum tax rate has gained traction, Trump is likely to re-evaluate this initiative for the US. His proposed two-tier corporate tax system could see ‘Made in America’ firms benefit from a 15% rate, while foreign companies continue to pay 21%. This approach may drive renewed interest in tax-efficient jurisdictions, making IFCs more attractive for multinational corporations and capital flows.
- Tech and geopolitical friction: The ongoing US-China tech standoff will shape investment trends, deepening the global technological divide. IFCs are well-positioned to attract fintech and blockchain ventures, reinforcing their roles as key players in the evolving global tech landscape.
- Trade and digital transformation: Global trade is shifting from multilateral agreements to regional and bilateral deals, potentially sidelining institutions like the World Trade Organisation. IFCs could play a growing role in facilitating regional trade agreements and digital trading hubs. Meanwhile, a more crypto-friendly U.S. administration may accelerate the integration of digital assets into global trade, offering new opportunities for private capital investors.
UK economy: A mixed outlook
The UK’s economic outlook remains uncertain, yet it continues to attract significant international investment. According to PwC’s Annual Global CEO Survey[3], the UK has risen to become the second-most attractive global destination for international investment, ranking behind only the US. With a new Labour government prioritising economic growth, investment opportunities may continue to expand. Although a softer tone is being taken by Trump towards the UK for now, potential disruptions from his trade policies risks softening UK exports, contributing further to global inflationary pressures.
While UK growth in 2025 is expected to be sluggish, it remains more positive than the EU average. As a close financial partner to the UK, Jersey is well positioned to support investment structures that navigate these shifting dynamics.
Jersey’s competitive edge: seizing the moment
Jersey’s finance industry is well-positioned to capitalise on global shifts, supported by a stable regulatory and tax environment. Key opportunities include expanding Jersey’s role in UK real estate, private equity, and venture capital—particularly in tech. The Island’s appeal as a hub for VC investment continues to grow, with Monterey data reporting that 246 VC funds were launched in Jersey in 2024. At the same time, Jersey should continue strengthening ties with promoters in the US, Middle East, and Asia, who are looking to leverage the opportunities presented by AIFMD II.
To attract business to the Island, Jersey needs to continue enhancing product offerings and regulatory frameworks. Jersey Finance noted at their Global Horizons event, the key developments in 2024 that will continue to be a focus in 2025. These included the expansion of Limited Liability Companies (LLCs) for broader use cases, updates to the Jersey Private Fund (JPF) Guide to align with professional investor needs, legislative amendments for limited partnerships to incorporate digitalisation and tokenisation frameworks, and potential new regimes for carried interest vehicles and European Long-Term Asset Funds (ELTAF).
In terms of market focus and expanding the island’s global reach, the US is set to offer great opportunities for Jersey, particularly for private wealth in hubs like Miami, New York and even LA. With continued growth taking place in the Middle East, the region is still a key focus for Jersey for both the private wealth and funds industries. Saudi Arabia is showing growing potential as well as Dubai which continues to be one of the biggest market opportunities for Jersey globally. In Kenya and South Africa, opportunities for private wealth, private equity and infrastructure are emerging and Jersey is well-positioned to support HNWIs, family offices, and businesses seeking international finance solutions as interest in global diversification is on the rise.
Key themes set to shape the future of Jersey
Tokenisation: Tokenisation is seen as a critical area for Jersey’s future in the funds industry. As the financial world increasingly embraces digital transformation, tokenisation is gaining traction. Jersey, with its well-established legal and regulatory framework, is positioned to be a leading jurisdiction for the tokenisation of assets.
Islamic finance: Islamic finance continues to offer substantial growth opportunities and Jersey is solidifying its position as a stable and credible jurisdiction of choice for Islamic finance products. The island’s flexibility in structuring Sharia-compliant investment vehicles make it an attractive destination for the structuring of Islamic finance deals, including Private Funds (JPFs) and structured finance transactions.
Women in wealth: The increasing leadership of women in wealth management is a powerful trend, with more HNW families being led by women. Over the past decade, female participation in wealth management and leadership roles has doubled, reflecting broader societal shifts toward gender equality. In particular, as more Middle Eastern women seek stable, confidential, and Shariah-compliant solutions, Jersey offers a robust financial ecosystem with secure wealth structuring, governance, and succession planning options.
Positioning Jersey for the future
As global markets evolve, Jersey’s finance industry must remain agile, proactive, and outward-looking. By leveraging its regulatory strengths, digital infrastructure, and global partnerships, Jersey is well-positioned to thrive in 2025 and beyond. With a focus on alternative assets, private wealth, and innovation, the island will continue to cement its status as a premier international finance centre in a rapidly changing world.
At Belasko, we provide innovative fund administration, corporate services, and private wealth solutions in Guernsey, Jersey, the UK and Luxembourg. With a commitment to delivering bespoke, high-quality services, Belasko partners with fund managers, high-net-worth individuals, families, and entrepreneurs. Powered by leading technology, Belasko’s helps clients navigate complex financial landscapes, unlocking new opportunities and achieving success.
We look forward to another year of growth and collaboration with our partners across the world. If you’re interested in discussing our Jersey offering in more detail, get in touch with Paul Lawrence ([email protected]).
[1] https://www.preqin.com/insights/research/blogs/preqin-forecasts-global-alternatives-aum-to-rise-to-usd29-22tn-by-2029
[2] https://international-adviser.com/geoff-cook-on-global-trends-amid-trump-inauguration/
[3] https://www.pwc.co.uk/press-room/press-releases/research-commentary/2024/global-ceos-rank-uk-most-important-market-after-us—pwc-s-28th-.html